Global Warming--What Do We Know?

For more than a decade, I’ve  followed information and opinions about climate change.  I’ve read a lot of denial and a lot of scientific data and projections which confuse me.  But through it all, one thing that to me is solid is the NASA measured data shown below.  It’s the holy grail of climate change science for me.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

The data points plotted for each year are the average over the whole earth and the entire year.  “Temperature anomaly” is the difference of data points from the average in the 1951 to 1980 period which is 15 plus a few tenths degrees Centigrade (59 degrees Fahrenheit). 

Recently the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its fifth Assessment Report and, as expected, there is a flood of criticism from skeptics and deniers.  It is inconceivable that one can look at the data above and deny that there has been global heating.  Skepticism on future projections?  Maybe that’s different.

But I have my own criticism from having read the “Summary for Policyholders” sub-report.  I look at the recent part of the chart above and see a definite leveling of warming.  The five year average change has been level at about 0.56 degree for four years and can be expected to stay level or slowly changing in the future because of the data points since 2001 which cluster about this average.

The IPCC report, which publishes the same chart does not acknowledge a leveling of  warming, but acknowledges a reduction in the warming rate for the period from 1998 to 2012 as compared with the period 1951 to 2012.  It does not acknowledge the flat data during 2004 through 2012 or in the periods 1880 through 1920 or 1945 through 1975.  Why not?  Could it be that these data are akin to the family with an alcoholic uncle whom they wish could just be kept out of sight?

Part of the mystery of this slowing or leveling of warming is that the increase in CO₂ in the atmosphere is on a steady rise as shown in the report.  The two do not appear to be going hand in hand as was thought at one time.  This begs for a discovery of causes other than or in addition to CO₂. 

What about long range projections?  The IPCC report states that the computer models for long range prediction have been revised and there are now four different scenarios ranging from mild to severe warming.  That seems to realistically represent the uncertainty; unfortunately it gives zealots on both sides of the issue an opportunity to pick the model that they prefer.

  

Back to the graph above.  Does the leveling of warming in the last decade mean that the great god of cooling has defeated the great god of warming and that global climate change is a thing of the past?  It would be comforting.  We wouldn’t have to use those curly light bulbs any more and we wouldn’t have to feel guilty about leaving a change in the environment for future generations.  But given the temperature rise in the last century and the higher rate of rise in the 1980s, the possibility of future warming can hardly be ignored.

Climatology is an incredibly complex science.  I believe that climate scientists are on a steep learning curve—and must be true scientists, not influenced by political agendas.   

Loving the Theater

Greetings fellow theater lovers.  Let me make some remarks about the Theater 2013 which is playing in the halls of our nation’s capital, and which we all support.

It’s reelection season which began at the conclusion of the 1012 election.  Campaigning is going on both for individual candidates and the political parties.

Positive campaigning is worthless; strong negativity is necessary to rouse those 40 per cent or more who are qualified to vote but don’t.

Political campaigns are expensive in spite of all the money being thrown at the parties and candidates by special interests and “promoters of democracy”.

The media—CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, radio talk shows and the newspapers—provide a campaign pulpit at no cost to those who wish to demean, marginalize or bash the other side.

Leaders of the two parties agree to let the arguments on phony issues—de-funding the ACA, letting the Government default on its debts, etc—run out until the deadline, giving as many speakers as possible access to the free campaign pulpit.  This is indeed rare cooperation between the two parties.

So, expect the theater performances to continue playing until the evening of Thursday October 17.  At this time the players will announce the restoration of the Government and take their bows as their partisan audiences cheer.

Some might say that this fighting over phony issues is shameful.  But remember, it was Shakespeare who wrote, “The whole world is a stage…”

A PARTY SCHOOL?

The Santa Barbara News Press recently reported the Princeton Review’s publication that UC Santa Barbara is ranked second in the nation (up from eighth last year) as a party school.  The party ranking is one of 62 categories ranked by the Review.  Searching for Princeton Review on the internet, I found that it is a privately-held company providing test preparation and admissions consultation—not affiliated with the prestigious Princeton University as I had thought.  I couldn’t find a list of the 62 categories, but dozens of newspaper articles telling of the party rating.

That emphasis on party rating without a reference to other attributes disturbs me—perhaps offends me.  I might be considered an elderly curmudgeon, but I do acknowledge the need for students to relax between periods of stress and to sometimes “whoop it up.”  But I see the division between two different ideas:

           

“I want to party whenever I can.”

            “I want to make major achievements.”

Now, ask 17 or 18-year-old college applicants which of the two is more important, and we are likely to hear “both.”   Such is the unbridled enthusiasm of youth.  But as college days progress, the split between the two ideas will become more apparent.  Some will follow the party icon too rigidly and fail.  But others will follow the achievement icon and will be our future.  We hope that college students in our lives will be more drawn to the achievement icon.

I give credit to the News Press for including in the article something that most of us locals know, that UCSB has a world class standing in research and has received excellence awards for its academic programs.

Guns Across the Border

A study by the IGARAPE Institute of Brazil and the Trans Border Institute of the University of San Diego provides some startling estimates of firearm trafficking. This study estimates that between 100,000 and 380,000 weapons are smuggled across the border annually from the United States to Mexico.  This smuggling has increased markedly from the 90’s.  The strict firearms control laws in Mexico make it a prime market for traffickers. 

How ironic that the United States is providing the weapons to the drug warriors who are killing each other to determine who supplies drugs to the abundant market here.

But is there more?  Could Mexico be the first stop of these guns on their way to Afghanistan to be used against our troops?  Surely gun traffickers have no conscience, and U.S. Government’s ability to intercept trafficking is limited.

Please, somebody, prove to me that movement of our weapons to Afghanistan isn’t—couldn’t be—happening.

Cloning Ancient Trees--and what else?

I recently learned of a project in which a small non-profit organization plans to clone some of the largest and oldest trees in the world and use these clones to create new forests.  This project, known as the Archangel Ancient Tree Archive, will collect genetic material from such trees as Coastal Redwoods, Giant Sequoias, Giant Irish Oaks and others and develop infant trees with genetics identical to those of their parents.  These infants will be planted and nurtured in different parts of the world where conditions are favorable for growth.  The largest and oldest of each species will be sought.  Why?  Because these are deemed to have the strongest genetics thereby creating the most sustainable forest where planted.

Redwood forests are difficult to establish because of the unique conditions under which they thrive and the  ecosystem they produce to sustain the forest.  But it can be done as one can see in a visit to Stow Grove Park in Goleta.  There a grove of redwoods, planted a century ago, reaches skyward, promising to be the largest and most noble trees in the Santa Barbara area.

The first planting by the Archangel project took place last December near Port Orford Oregon where thousands of Coastal Redwood and Giant Sequoia clones were planted.  This grove is being watched with great interest.

As I ponder the growth of these tree clones, I wonder about cloning humans.  There is, of course, cloning research going on in the form of therapeutic cloning in which cells identical to an individual’s own are injected to replace damaged or disintegrated cells.  Early results are expected in repairing severed nerves, eye damage and other cellular damage.

 

But what about cloning entire humans?  Would it be good to have copies of some of the greatest leaders, scientists and statesmen of our time to enhance our gene pool?  It’s a controversial subject, but I’m opposed to it.  It’s too hitleresque.  I expect that it won’t happen during my lifetime.

In the meantime, I will watch with interest the results of the Archangel project.  Please read about it at http://www.ancienttreearchive.org/.

Petitioning the Government

In 2011, the Obama Administration inaugurated an initiative known as “We the People.” The objective was to encourage people to send petitions to the White House.    With enough signatures, the petitions will be read and commented on.  The White House web page contains instructions for submitting a petition and includes petitions which are in process to which one can add his or her signature (electronically).

Now this seems like a good idea.  A problem in our democratic system is that when we vote for someone to represent us, we typically have a choice of only two persons, neither of which may exactly mirror our wishes on all issues.  We can make our personal agenda known by messages to our elected representatives; one letter is equivalent to 1000 votes, as goes the conventional wisdom.   But it takes a large number of the same message to have an impact on the decision makers, and how few people do it anyway?  That’s where the petition comes in.

Not all petitions are serious, though.  Some of the less than serious or implausible petitions that have been started are “Build a Death Star”,  “Try Senator Feinstein for Treason”,  “Fire Pierce Morgan from CNN”,  “Impeach Obama”, “Nationalize the Twinkie Industry” etc.  The death star (Star Wars series) petition got 25,000 signatures, forcing the White House to respond.  Since then they have upped the threshold to 100,000 signatures.

Reading about these petitions reminded me something I saw earlier this year.  Some young people were soliciting signatures for a petition to “impeach Obama” in front of our local post office.  I inquired of one of the people taking signatures as to what specific “acts of treason or high crimes and misdemeanors” were the basis for the petition.  The answer was a rattling of political rhetoric that could hardly give basis for impeachment no matter what one’s political bent might be.  Thinking about it later, I tried to understand  the purpose of the petition.  In a generally Democratic district in a Democratic state, this petition could hardly get serious notice.  But there is another possible angle.  What if those signatures and addresses (snail mail or e-mail) were to be used for a targeted mailing list for soliciting funds for conservative causes or other advertising?  If so, I’d say it’s a clever ploy.

But in spite of frivolousness and hidden agendas, I still like the idea of a petition to our government.  And it’s guaranteed by article I of the Constitution.

CRITICAL THINKING

The California Superintendent of Public Instruction recommends a change in the school testing approach to increase emphasis on critical thinking. The testing changes will also mandate changes to the curriculum. 

A good idea although we might anticipate some objections.  Those who think critically are not always good followers.  Yet critical thinkers are needed for discovery and innovation which are necessary for the U.S. to maintain its challenged global leadership in many areas.

Some thinking is required to envision the impact of critical thinking.  An example that I like is that of Nicholaus Copernicus (1473-1543).  For decades of observing the celestial objects, he reasoned that the earth must be revolving around the sun, not the other way around as was a common belief and an edict of the Church.  He documented his findings secretly providing a rich basis for future scientists’ work.

Another example of a critical thinker was Christopher Columbus.  He ignored some primitive fears that the world was flat and that ships would fall off of it into…something.  He reasoned that since the world is a globe, one could sail due west and arrive at the other side of the Eurasian-African land mass where spices and other desired commodities could be found.  He had it right, of course, but he had no idea that American land mass would be in his way.   His critical thinking set in place centuries of the New World exploration and development.

There are also some examples of non-critical thinking.  Think about 2008 when the economy collapsed and many banks nearly went under.  The combined efforts of Wall Street, the banks, realtors and home buyers created a huge bubble that was destined to explode.  What were they thinking?

Another example of non-critical thinking is in the political battling (grandstanding) about the federal deficit.  Both sides appear to agree that government spending cuts are necessary for deficit reduction, yet both want the other side to specify the reductions and take the heat from the electorate.   Critical thinking on both sides might result in a working together to find the cuts that will cause the least hurt to the citizenry.

At the risk of sounding negative, I suspect that control of the debt and deficit will be passed on to our future generations.  Let us hope that our descendants will have developed the skill of critical thinking to solve these problems.