THE FIVE PERCENT

Reviewing statistics of 32 presidential preference poll results starting June I, 2012, I find an average of 46.9 % for President Obama and 44.3% for Governor Romney.  Considering error margins, this is a dead heat.  But an intriguing number is the 8.8 percent that is not committed to either candidate.  Part of that, of course, is those who would vote for one of the minor candidates, but another part is the undecided vote.  For talking purposes, let’s assume five percent. 

Who are these undecided voters?  Are they trembling, confused willy-nillies, incapable of making any decisions?  Or are they the thinkers, not bound by entrenched thoughts inherited from family, friends or the media, but rather bent on evaluating the changing challenges and the best means of meeting them?  Are they not the ones who recognize how feeble the partisan proposals of both sides are for meeting the challenges of unemployment, deficit and all the others?

Hats off to the undecided five percent who will decide the outcome of the election.  Let us hope that their holdout position will force the candidates to make bold plans and commitments needed to move our country forward.

Does it sound like I’m patting myself on the back for being undecided at this point?  I’m not—I’m undergoing a frustrating search for more understanding.  I recognize that growth of the economy and job creation represent the major issue.  (Not to minimize the deficit as a major challenge, but if we achieve economic growth, the deficit will be easier to deal with).   How can the Government deal with the sluggish economy with its high unemployment? 

In the Great Depression many thing were tried—government spending, austerity and increased taxes.  But the unemployment remained gigantic and the spirits remained low.  Then the war with its behemoth government spending saw the unemployment go from 25 per cent to zero—and we won the war!  And at the end, people had money in their pockets and hope in their hearts.  And thence began a nearly constant period of economic growth for over 50 years until the crash of 2008.

We seem to be back in the Great Depression and looking for a way out.  We tried government spending in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), aka the “stimulus bill,” and it was considered by many to have failed.  Perhaps our president should have recognized that there were no “shovel ready jobs.”  Lengthy environmental impact studies were necessary before the first shovelfull could be turned and by that time the funding window had expired.  Also the ARRA contained some $300M of small business tax relief.  Again, our president should have recognized that business people can’t afford to hire someone just to save some payroll taxes.

Now we are hearing tax cuts lauded as a means of stimulating the economy.  Sounds good on the surface, but…  Will the wealthy really invest their tax savings in starting or expanding business?   I understand that’s what the financial community (banks, private equity and venture capital) does.  And there seems to be no shortage of that kind of capital available just waiting until the consumer demand picks up and creates investor opportunities.  Will tax savings for the middle class be spent on goods and services made by our workers or on things imported from overseas?

The issues are complex and I’m annoyed by superficial solutions.  My only hope is that whichever candidate wins will have the leadership to get the two parties working together and evaluating solutions in depth.  Then seeing a government working toward solutions will give us hope for the future.