Global Climate Update

A year ago I posted a blog stating that two years of sharp global temperature increase forced me to alter somewhat my previous skepticism on scientific analysis of global warming. The results for 2016 are now available which show another increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit).The global temperature has now increased by 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in a century. The graph below shows the temperature anomaly (the difference between the year’s average and the 1951 to 1960 average). This is the data for land-sea average temperature; the temperature increase for land only is somewhat higher.

 Data from https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/customize.html

 I recently was exposed to some scientific information that states that future temperature prediction is difficult to predict because of the number of factors, some of which are poorly quantified, that affect climate (other than burning hydrocarbon fuels). The predictions are done by “open” modeling which cannot be validated in advance. (Please note that I am quoting scientists’ statements. Although I have googled “open modeling”, I don’t pretend to have any depth of knowledge. So let’s accept the scientists’ conclusion).

For non-scientists like I, there are two take-aways. First, although the earlier predictions are not considered scientifically valid, there has been measured global warming—1.7 degrees Fahrenheit in a century. Secondly, while models can’t predict continued warming with scientific validity, neither can they predict a stable temperature in the future.

Does it become like a Las Vegas game? If so, what are the table stakes? Are they “just financial” or could they be catastrophic? For me, I’ll place my chips on the side of continued warming.