THE FIVE PERCENT

Reviewing statistics of 32 presidential preference poll results starting June I, 2012, I find an average of 46.9 % for President Obama and 44.3% for Governor Romney.  Considering error margins, this is a dead heat.  But an intriguing number is the 8.8 percent that is not committed to either candidate.  Part of that, of course, is those who would vote for one of the minor candidates, but another part is the undecided vote.  For talking purposes, let’s assume five percent. 

Who are these undecided voters?  Are they trembling, confused willy-nillies, incapable of making any decisions?  Or are they the thinkers, not bound by entrenched thoughts inherited from family, friends or the media, but rather bent on evaluating the changing challenges and the best means of meeting them?  Are they not the ones who recognize how feeble the partisan proposals of both sides are for meeting the challenges of unemployment, deficit and all the others?

Hats off to the undecided five percent who will decide the outcome of the election.  Let us hope that their holdout position will force the candidates to make bold plans and commitments needed to move our country forward.

Does it sound like I’m patting myself on the back for being undecided at this point?  I’m not—I’m undergoing a frustrating search for more understanding.  I recognize that growth of the economy and job creation represent the major issue.  (Not to minimize the deficit as a major challenge, but if we achieve economic growth, the deficit will be easier to deal with).   How can the Government deal with the sluggish economy with its high unemployment? 

In the Great Depression many thing were tried—government spending, austerity and increased taxes.  But the unemployment remained gigantic and the spirits remained low.  Then the war with its behemoth government spending saw the unemployment go from 25 per cent to zero—and we won the war!  And at the end, people had money in their pockets and hope in their hearts.  And thence began a nearly constant period of economic growth for over 50 years until the crash of 2008.

We seem to be back in the Great Depression and looking for a way out.  We tried government spending in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), aka the “stimulus bill,” and it was considered by many to have failed.  Perhaps our president should have recognized that there were no “shovel ready jobs.”  Lengthy environmental impact studies were necessary before the first shovelfull could be turned and by that time the funding window had expired.  Also the ARRA contained some $300M of small business tax relief.  Again, our president should have recognized that business people can’t afford to hire someone just to save some payroll taxes.

Now we are hearing tax cuts lauded as a means of stimulating the economy.  Sounds good on the surface, but…  Will the wealthy really invest their tax savings in starting or expanding business?   I understand that’s what the financial community (banks, private equity and venture capital) does.  And there seems to be no shortage of that kind of capital available just waiting until the consumer demand picks up and creates investor opportunities.  Will tax savings for the middle class be spent on goods and services made by our workers or on things imported from overseas?

The issues are complex and I’m annoyed by superficial solutions.  My only hope is that whichever candidate wins will have the leadership to get the two parties working together and evaluating solutions in depth.  Then seeing a government working toward solutions will give us hope for the future.

More on Global Warmiing

Professor Richard Muller of UCal Berkely made worldwide headlines recently when he announced that in spite of his previous skepticism on global warming, he has now determined that warming has happened for the past 250 years, and at a higher rate in the last 50 years.  Also, he concluded that no explanation other than man’s activities can account for this rise.  His findings are based on a study by the Berkely Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project which he founded.  Ironically, $150,000 of the funding for this project came from the Koch Brothers, foundation, well known for their denial of climate change.  Prof Muller’s op-ed in the New York Times on August 28 explains his results in layman terms.

How can this be—a tenured professor at one of the nation’s most respected universities flip-flopping?  Being upset about this revelation, I attempted to find some of Professor Muller’s earlier works.  I didn’t buy one of his books, self-proclaimed to his students as vital (at $49), but I read a couple of his earlier blog posts.  If I interpret correctly, he was not arguing about the existence of global warming, but was skeptical about the methodology other scientists used to process the millions of points in the temperature data sets to arrive at a conclusion.  So his “conversion” appears to be less spectacular than some reports in the media would indicate. 

As could be expected, Prof Muller has received criticism for his report.  (Seems that there is more hubris than humility in academia).  He has been criticized for not having subjected his analysis results to peer review.  One of his critics is Prof Judith Curry, a fellow member of the BEST project.  She claims that he has hidden the decline in warming measured in the past few years.  He counters saying these are not statistically significant data points.

What can we make of this controversy?  We would like to see scientific findings be truthful and separated from political pressures (from both sides).  When scientists disagree, we lay people are at their mercy.  We can only sort out as much as we can read or hear and make our best judgment.  Based on mountains of data and anecdotal observations, only the most obtuse could deny the existence of global warming.  But the future and what we can do to mitigate or adapt has scientific uncertainty.

A final thought:  If more people in 1999 had believed strongly in the validity of global warming, perhaps Al Gore would have won the election and Saddam Hussein would still be controlling Iraq.

Beneath the Sea

A couple of months ago, while sailing, we experienced a whale encounter.  About 50 feet from us, a whale surfaced and blew.  Seconds later it was gone to depths, leaving the characteristic footprint on the surface.  In this brief viewing, we saw a second body between us and the first.  Clearly, we had seen a mother gray whale and her calf on their 7000-mile migration from the lagoons of Baja California to the nutrient-rich waters of the Bering Sea where they would spend their summer.

Exciting?  Yes, and while watching in vain for a reappearance, we pondered how exciting it might have been.  Mother whales (not fathers) are extremely protective of their young who are vulnerable to attacks by sharks and Orcas.  There are recorded incidents of a whale attacking a boat that came between a mother and her calf.  My 30-foot boat would have come out second best in such a skirmish.  Fortunately, we were not seen as a threat.  And why not, we wondered.

That raised questions about the cognitive powers housed in those huge brains.  How did she decide that we were not a threat?  Does she have a reasoning process that sorts boat hulls from Killer Whales and sharks?  A clue is in the observation that the gray whales spending their winters in the Baja lagoons have become quite approachable by humans since the end of whaling near the West Coast.  People frequently go alongside a whale in a small boat and pet it.  Perhaps there is learning and memory as in human brains.  When I wrote my novel Encounters in Paradise, I had my characters debate the thought processes of a whale.  Could a whale reading the name on a boat recognize it as the namesake of a whaler that had caused much agony to its fellows during the whaling period?  A bit far-fetched perhaps, but the idea was to open thinking beyond our preconceived ideas.  Certainly there is a challenge to understand more about these magnificent creatures and their part in the order of life underseas.

The learning challenges include both the biological and physical aspects of the world beneath the sea’s surface.  The Nautilus project, in which scientists are resident in an underwater laboratory off the coast of Florida, has produced a wealth of scientific discoveries.  Unfortunately, it faces closure because of budget cuts.  A shame, when there is so much more to be learned that could be vital to the world’s economies and the health of the planet.  For example, what will be the effect of global climate change on the ocean, its geography and its inhabitants?  What can the nations do to adapt to these changes?  When we consider the wealth lying beneath the sea and the part that the oceans play in the ecology of the planet, we see the need to continue and accelerate oceanographic research.

The Presidential Race--2012

I am tuning out all political messages until the conventions are over and we see more serious campaigning.  What we see now, on both sides, is negative and mostly mindless rhetoric.  It is based on appeal to followers, not anyone who wishes to think independently.  Major national challenges are met, not with specific ways of meeting them, but with burning criticism of the other party or candidate.  So why should I make my election decisions based on the way each side bashes the other?

Yes, I’m judgmental, but I think I have a glimmer of understanding.  The issues are complex.  To research a single issue, e.g. job creation, is laborious.  We can look at the Great Depression and everything that was done, without immediate results, to get the economy back on its feet—soft money, hard money, stimulus.  Is there a politician alive who has all of the answers?  Then add all the important issues, and it is a staggering task to understand them all.  The questions are so deep that it is easier to pick our favorite and follow him or her—just as we do with our favorite sports team.  Democracy places a great burden on its citizens—much greater than what was conceived by our founders, I think.

Why do I think that the conventions will change the politicking?  First, each side will establish its platform—a set of its principles and priorities.  This should force specifics on how the candidate will approach the challenges.  But more important, there will be the debates.  Let’s hope that the moderators will direct the debates to intelligent, open and truthful discussion that will help all voters to make enlightened decisions regardless of party attachment.

After the debates, the pundits will go on endlessly about who won.  Again, time to turn off.

  

A Robotic Car ?

Google recently demonstrated a self-driving car and reported having driven its fleet of such cars 20,000 miles without an accident.  The operator sits in the driver’s seat, but the car operates, navigates, avoids other vehicles, avoids pedestrians and parks by itself.  Nevada has issued the first license for a robotic car.  The California Senate has passed legislation establishing safety standards for self-driving cars, a first step in licensing.  Is this a curiosity or a thing of the future?

I, the eternal skeptic, ask why such a car?  What good is it?  Who would want it?  But then, I’m the guy, a while back, who thought there would never be a reason for a computer in every home.  So what do I know?  Best to keep an open mind to this new thing.

Safety is a major advantage.  Electronic sensors and decision-making algorithms when properly developed can be much faster and more reliable than a human’s reaction.  But, you ask, what about the idiots (sorry—other drivers who are tailgating, lane switching, inebriated, sleepy, or distracted) in non-robotic cars?  Well, the idea is to protect number 1 from being one of the 30,000 annual highway fatalities.  And the more self-driven cars on the road the safer it should be for all.

 

The morning commute is a time when it would be good to have the car drive itself while you have that second cup of coffee, read the newspaper, make notes on the day’s plans at work, apply make-up or make those important phone calls.  Yes, I know, there are people doing that now.  But since their cars don’t really drive themselves, they create a safety hazard.

A person with impairments that preclude normal drivers’ licensing--vision, limb malfunction, etc--would find a great boost to quality of life to be able to get around independently.  Those or us not so impaired have difficulty fully comprehending this freedom.

Traveling in a self-driving car on a road trip with friends or family would allow all to enjoy the scenery and communicate without the need for intense road concentration.  (Of course, the kids might still  be zombies with their video games and smart phones, but we can always hope.)

Who knows whether any of these scenarios will create the impetus for bringing robotic cars into production and the market?  But it might be like in the movie Field of Dreams which has the famous line, “build it and they will come.”  Or in this case, “build it and they will use it.”

The gamblers

Are they still doing it?  Is JPMorgan Chase’s 2 billion plus loss from playing Las Vegas games with derivatives a warning that the big banks could come to the taxpayers again looking for a bailout?  Granted JPM’s loss, even combined with the 16 or 17 billion stock decline in the first few days, is not large in terms of their capitalization; nevertheless it is disturbing to see the reckless investing carefully hidden from stockholders.  Wasn’t that what caused the financial meltdown in 2008? 

In 2008 when the banks were taking the economy into the sewer with their foolish gambling, we were told that they were “too big to fail” and therefore the taxpayers must bail them out.  That was welfare—what else could we call it?  Well, maybe socialism.  And isn’t it ironic that when welfare reform was enacted in the 90’s, it didn’t apply to corporations—just individuals?

Since 2008, the banks, particularly JPM, have grown.  If they were too big to fail then, surely they still are.  It’s too bad that when they came to us for a bailout, we couldn’t have forced a breakup into smaller entities, not so internationally intertwined.  Then the free market would be doing the policing—if the banks did dumb things, they could face bankruptcy, not welfare.

OwensValley--Its Shame and Fame

I recently visited the Owens Valley on the eastern slope of the Sierras to put myself in this area of conflicts of the past and attempt to get a feeling for its history. Geographically, the Owens Valley lies between the Sierras and White mountains starting at Olancha just south of Owens Lake and continuing northward for 100 miles. The valley has the stark beauty of the high desert, combined with vistas of the snow-capped Sierra Nevada. Its history could cover volumes, but a few highlights became obvious from my visit there combined with some reading.

The Indian Wars     The Paiutes and other Native American tribes had occupied this desert area for countless ages when Americans settlers began moving there in the 1860’s. The Americans brought their cattle that grazed on the native vegetation. (Looking at it today makes me wonder how good the grazing was.) While the two groups coexisted peacefully for a time, the Americans’ incursion on the land caused problems for the natives. The settlers’ cattle ate the plants that the natives depended on for food. A flood in the winter of 1861-62 resulted in game being driven away and other hardships for the natives. Reports tell of starving natives stealing the settlers’ cattle leading to armed conflict between the two groups. In 1863 the U.S. Army sent forces into the area and drove the Native Americans out of the valley. Hardly a proud event in our history!

The Los Angeles Water Wars    In the late 1890’s the growth of Los Angeles was clearly limited by availability of water. Mayor Fred Eaton and his Chief of the Department of Water and Power, William Mulholland, planned to bring water from the Owens River, 220 miles to the north of dry Los Angeles. These two methodically acquired major land and water rights, some by normal land purchases and some, as reports state, by subterfuge and coercion. Farmers in the Owens Valley protested, but in the end Los Angeles won. The California Aqueduct was built and began operation in 1913.

Dry-up of the Owens Valley     The flow of water to Los Angeles soon dried up the agricultural areas where crops had been grown with a abundance of sun and a shallow water table. Farmers attempted to sabotage the Aqueduct repeatedly but were suppressed. Owens Lake, once covering 100 square miles and as much as 50 feet deep, became a dry alkaline sink. As I stood there looking over this expanse of white powder, I tried to picture the turn of the last century when steamships carried silver and other ores across this lake from the Cerro Gordo mines to the town of Cartago where it was loaded on wagons for transport to Los Angeles.

Father Crowley    Against the despair that overcame the farmers who lost their livelihood when the water disappeared, a voice rang out with hope. This “desert priest” traveled the length of the Owens Valley encouraging the farmers to adapt to the situation and develop tourism to take the place of the lost farming. The area began to develop its potential for hunting, fishing, skiing, hiking, camping and mountain climbing. A memorable event was his celebration of mass on the summit of Mount Whitney. Truly he was a hero in a time of need. Crowley Lake on the eastern edge of the Sierra and Father Crowley Point in Death Valley were named in his honor.

Manzanar    This area north of Lone Pine was irrigated in the latter part of the 19th century for growing apples. The land produced good crops of apples until the irrigation water was diverted to the California Aqueduct. It then returned to its desert nature. Then at the beginning of World War II,the U.S. Government took people of Japanese descent, immigrants and U.S. citizens, from their homes and placed them in “relocation camps.” Manzanar was selected as one of the camps and eventually was “home” to 10,000 persons. I studied the pictures, memorabilia and writings in the Eastern California Museum in Independence and was overcome by a feeling of sadness that such a thing happened in our country. Later, I drove through Manzanar and saw the markers for the streets on which barracks were hastily built. It was a sobering experience. A video depicting life in the camp can be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fqd-Kh_zpdA

Against the shame that was Manzanar, a form of heroism prevailed. The people confined there kept the camp orderly, raised vegetables and provided a school for their children. The baseball games played by the young men was a source of inspiration to young and old. Above all, the people maintained a sense of dignity.

Restoration Begins    Driving along Owens Lake toward Lone Pine, I thought I saw dark veins throughout the white powder. I looked again. Water? Could it be? I later learned that in 2007, the courts ordered Los Angeles Water and Power Division to partially re-fill the lake by diverting water from the aqueduct. The reason was to control the dust that blew from the lake bottom and polluted a large area. The project is still in progress, but some ecological benefits have been realized, including a return of several bird species.

Is there a lesson to be learned from the Owens Valley experience? I think it is a paraphrasing of Winston Churchill’s statement: We must understand the mistakes of the past in order to avoid making them again.